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☆ Hong Kong stocks are back from the dead. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index surged more than 7% in April as the best-performing major index in the world. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has also become more “compelling” relative to the rest of the Asian region after the pullback last year, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. He added that there is a shift in investors’ sentiments as Chinese economic data turned more positive. Innes said global investors are currently “underweight” in Chinese markets, including Hong Kong, because of geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding potential fallout from the upcoming US elections. Stock exchange data showed that southbound investors (meaning investment from mainland China into Hong Kong) have bought nearly $20 billion of Hong Kong-listed stocks in March and the first three weeks of April on a net basis.

Persons: ”, Kelly Chung, Zhikai Chen, Stephen Innes, David Chao, Nomura, Xiaomei Chen, Angelina Lai, Innes, Kong, BNP Paribus Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hong, Value Partners, BNP, Management, P Global, PMI, Kong's, Reuters, US, People’s Bank of, HK, “ Locations: China, Hong Kong, United States, Beijing, India, James’s, People’s Bank of China

☆ Why the next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience. The note highlighted the unexpected strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March, which jumped above 50 for the first time since September 2022. A reading above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 represents a contraction. If a potential recession is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data, it would represent yet another year in which many economists were off in their recession predictions, though some have backed off their call for a recession following the resilience seen throughout 2023 even amid higher interest rates.

Persons: JPMorgan's Ellen Wang, Andrew Tyler, Wang, Tyler, Wang aren't Organizations: JPMorgan, Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve

☆ China PMI: Factories send mixed signals about the economy, pressing Beijing to do more
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But the Caixin manufacturing PMI — which focuses on smaller, private companies — rose to 50.9 in February, up from 50.8 in January, according to S&P Global, which compiled the survey. The divergence in the output and new order sub-indexes is likely related to differences in geographic and sector coverage, as the Caixin PMI covers more southern regions, they said. “Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to improve in February,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement that accompanied the Caixin PMI data. “Looking ahead, the focus should be on the effectiveness of the measures [announced previously by Beijing to boost growth],” Wang said. “Fiscal policy will lead the way,” HSBC analysts said Friday.

Persons: ” Goldman Sachs, ”, Wang Zhe, ” Wang, Xi Jinping, Lintao Zhang, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, P, National People’s Congress, PMI, Caixin Insight, “, of People, Communist Party’s Politburo, NPC, Xinhua, HSBC Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Southern China, Guangdong, Zheijang, ” China

☆ 'We're in the sweet spot of this economy, in terms of growth,' Hightower's Stephanie Link says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The economy is in good shape and earnings are expanding, which spells good news for stocks, according to Stephanie Link. "We're in the sweet spot of this economy, in terms of growth," which is great news for corporate profits and points to wider stock market rally involving more stocks, Link said. "We're running at 4.2% from the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker, you've got PMIs [purchasing manager indexes] that are bottoming, new orders that are inflecting [higher]," Link said. "It means better earnings. A strong economy means better earnings, and that is what is happening.

Persons: Stephanie Link, Link, Hightower, you've, We've Organizations: Hightower Associates, Atlanta Fed

☆ Morning Bid: RBA holds and the dollar pauses, too
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets are pricing in bigger rate cuts by the Fed next year than by any other major or emerging market central bank. But will the Fed cut rates by 125 basis points next year? Doubts about that prospect have for now put the brakes on dollar selling. Gold , which shot to a record high in Asia's notoriously thin morning hours on Monday, has recoiled sharply.

Persons: David Gray, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Bank, Aussie, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, U.S, Europe, Tokyo

☆ China's policy support is a 'stop-gap' measure — not stimulus, SocGen economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.

Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China

☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

FILE PHOTO: A screen showing the Hang Seng stock index is seen outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. They include Australia, South Korea and India, as well as China's 'unofficial' PMI. Foreigners already appear to be voting with their feet - China just recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- PMIs for Australia, South Korea, India, China- Japan unemployment (October)- Indonesia inflation (October)By Jamie McGeever Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Dow Jones, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, National Bureau, Statistics, Japan's Nikkei, U.S ., Thomson, Reuters Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, India, Asia

REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. If this week has so far been strangely listless for Asian markets, that could be about to change suddenly on Thursday as investors brace for a deluge of top-tier economic data and policy events from across the continent. The latest industrial production and retail sales data from both Japan and South Korea are on tap too, all of which could move their respective markets, especially currencies. All else equal, the risks for Asian markets on Thursday may be tilted to the upside, even though stock markets around the world again struggled on Wednesday. South Korea's central bank is expected to keep its base rate on hold at 3.50% and leave it there until at least the middle of next year.

Persons: Kim Hong, That's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: Korea, South Korean, REUTERS, New Zealand, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Seoul, South Korea, China, India, Japan, U.S, Korea's, Korea

☆ Asian shares dragged lower by China, Treasury yields climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were also little changed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.6% but are still headed for a weekly gain of 0.8%. Chinese bluechips (.CSI300) fell 0.7% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) tumbled 1.4%, reversing the previous day's hefty gains. Cash Treasuries fell a little as they resumed trading in Asia, with two-year Treasury yields up 3 basis points to 4.9419% and benchmark ten-year yields up 4 bps to 4.4606%. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $81.26 a barrel.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Shane Oliver, Cash Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes, Robert Birsel Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Wall, Nasdaq, Hamas, Nikkei, AMP, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Gaza, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Beijing

☆ Asian shares dragged lower by China, dollar on back foot
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Asian shares were dragged lower by China on Friday amid little guidance from Wall Street which was closed for a holiday, while the dollar remained on the back foot as investors bet U.S. rates have peaked. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.4% but are headed for a weekly gain of 0.9%. Japan's markets (.N225) returned from a holiday, with Nikkei (.225) climbing 1.0% to charge towards a 33-year high hit on Monday. In Europe, slightly better than expected euro zone PMIs nudged the euro and shares higher and Sweden's crown dropped as its central bank left rates on hold. In the currency markets, the dollar < =USD> was on the back foot against its peers at 103.71, nearing a three month low of 103.17.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Shane Oliver, Cash Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Nikkei, AMP, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Beijing, Europe

☆ Asia stocks hold gains as confidence grows on rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's benchmark share index (.CSI300) fell 0.16% on Thursday, with the real estate sub-index (.CSI931775) retrieved earlier losses to gain 2.11%. Chinese government advisers will recommend to an annual policymakers' meeting that economic growth targets for next year be set at 4.5% to 5.5%, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Markets have generally been buoyant this month, with stocks rallying on expectations of a more benign interest rate backdrop. The next set of forward-looking flash November PMIs will help investors to assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts might begin. The minutes of the European Central Bank's October meeting and flash PMIs for a host of European countries are Thursday's highlights.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, shrugged, Redmond Wong, Brent, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Bitcoin, Selena Li, Edmund Klamann, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Bloomberg, Garden Holdings, HK, Reuters, U.S, The, Federal Reserve, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, Nasdaq, European Central, PMI, OPEC, FTSE, UK Finance, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, HONG KONG, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, The U.S, Greater China, Australia, Britain, U.S

☆ Holiday thins trading after data slows dollar's decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Vidya Ranganathan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. By 0530 GMT, however, the euro was 0.15% higher at $1.0902 and the dollar index was a tad weaker at 103.71. Adding to investors' confusion, data showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell more than expected in October, signalling an economy cooling considerably after hot third-quarter growth. The dollar's rebound comes after a three-week long spell of weakness driven by evidence of a slowing economy and disinflation, leading markets to price out any additional Fed rate hikes. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Rights SINGAPORE, Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's

☆ Asia stocks hold recent gains as confidence grows on rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are also looking to Chinese policymakers for clues on possible support for the long-suffering property market, in line with broader growth targets they are hammering out. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged down 0.11% in thin trading, with Japan and the United States on holiday. Chinese government advisers will recommend to an annual policymakers' meeting that economic growth targets for next year be set at 4.5% to 5.5%, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Markets have generally been buoyant this month, with stocks rallying on expectations of a more benign interest rate backdrop. The next set of forward-looking flash November PMIs will help investors to assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts might begin.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, shrugged, Redmond Wong, Brent, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Selena Li, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, Reuters, Nasdaq, OPEC, FTSE, UK Finance, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, HONG KONG, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Greater China, Australia, Britain

☆ Holiday thins trading after data nudges dollar higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. The dollar index rose overnight, bouncing from a 2-1/2 month low, after economic data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. The weakness in the dollar has buoyed the yen , along with expectations the Bank of Japan may shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy next year. The dollar index was just 0.03% lower at 103.84, with the euro unchanged at $1.0887. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes, or PMIs, are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.

Persons: Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI Locations: Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S

☆ Gold ticks higher as weaker US dollar, yields lend support
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 23 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, hovering close to a key $2,000 per ounce level, as an overall weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields buoyed demand for bullion. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,992.59 per ounce, as of 0143 GMT, after hitting a three-week high of $2,007.29 on Tuesday. * Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0745 France Business Climate Mfg, Overall Nov0815 France HCOB Mfg, Serv, Comp Flash PMIs Nov0830 Germany HCOB Mfg, Serv, Comp Flash PMIs Nov0900 EU HCOB Mfg, Serv, Comp Flash PMIs Nov0930 UK Flash Comp, Mfg, Serv PMIs NovReporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, CME's, Serv, Brijesh Patel, Rashmi Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, . Federal Reserve, Trust, Climate Mfg, France HCOB, Germany HCOB, Mfg, Thomson Locations: Mendrisio, Switzerland, France, Germany, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Markets in a holiday mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsNov 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Lewis Krauskopf, markets correspondent. Markets were buoyant ahead of Asia trading and the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., with stocks resuming their massive rally this month that has been fueled by hopes of a more benign interest rate backdrop. Japanese markets were also set to be closed for a national holiday on Thursday. While speculation that the Bank of Japan could exit from negative interest rates early next year stands to help stabilize the yen, the Japanese currency still faces strong headwinds. Trading volumes were set to be subdued for the rest of the week with markets in the U.S. closed on Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Singapore CPI, Indonesia Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Santa Claus, New York City, U.S, Lewis, Asia, China, Beijing, Singapore

[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London

[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The MSCI World Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38% by 10:37 a.m. EST (1537 GMT) and Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) rose 0.08%. The tech-heavy index (.IXIC) gained 0.44% to 14,187.16, as the Dow Jones (.DJI) rose 0.25% to 35,035.33 and the S&P 500 index (.SPX) gained 0.27% to 4,526.14. The dollar index fell to 103.46, its weakest level since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. "Dovish minutes could trigger some downside risk for the dollar," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Israel, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Global, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Hamas, Tech, Treasury, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, United States, Gaza, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London

☆ Japan shares hit three-decade high, yuan shoves dollar down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Financial shares led the gains on Monday as investors prepare for an eventual end to negative rates, while auto makers have been benefiting from a weak yen and high exports. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 0.8%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) dipped 0.2% as the country's central bank held rates steady as widely expected, but set a firm fix for the yuan that saw the dollar slip under 7.2000 to a three-month low. Sweden's central bank meets this week and may hike again, given high inflation and the weakness of its currency.

Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Financial, Hamas, Nasdaq, Tech, Futures, U.S, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, NAB, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Israel, United States, Gaza, October's

☆ Japan shares hit three-decade high, yuan climbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Financial shares led the gains on Monday as investors prepare for an eventual end to negative rates, while auto makers have been benefiting from a weak yen and high exports. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.1%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. That outlook helped bonds rally, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.45% having dropped 19 basis points last week and away from October's 5.02% high. Sweden's central bank meets this week and may hike again, given high inflation and the weakness of its currency.

☆ Asia off to slow start, lot of easing already priced in
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.1%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was little changed, and is up almost 9% for the month so far amid upbeat corporate earnings. A LOT PRICED INMarkets have all but priced out the risk of a further hike in December or next year, and imply a 30% chance of an easing starting in March. Futures also imply around 100 basis points of cuts for 2024, up from 77 basis points before the benign October inflation report shook markets. "If another soft print eventuates, expect pricing for ECB cuts to extend beyond the current 100bps of cuts being priced for 2024."

Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Brent nudged, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Nvidia, Hamas, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Tech, Futures, U.S, European Central Bank, NAB, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Israel, United States, Gaza, Asia, Pacific, October's

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

☆ Dollar extends drop, still vulnerable after Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index was hovering around a 6-1/2 week low of 104.84, after falling around 1.4% last week. "You could still see a somewhat weaker dollar in the short-term, but if the (euro-dollar) rally continues it needs to get some fuel from somewhere." JPMorgan analysts say a sustained dollar sell-off would need signs of improvement in the euro zone, China and other regions, which it says are "still tenuous". The latest growth and inflation data from the euro zone and manufacturing surveys from China bear that out. Euro zone recession fears hardened on Monday after a survey showed a downturn in business activity accelerated last month as demand in the services sector weakened further.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Tina Teng, Dane Cekov, Adrian Prettejohn, Jerome Powell, Nordea's Cekov, Sterling, bitcoin, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Vidya, Kirsten Donovan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Aussie, CMC Markets, JPMorgan, Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Auckland, China, U.S

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